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    Default Moody’s lowers India’s growth forecast to 5.5 %

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    In yet another projection scale-down, Moody’s has revised its estimate on India’s economic growth lower at 5.5 per cent during 2012 and cited the “turbulent” global conditions, domestic policy “mis-steps” and a poor monsoon as the reasons weighing on investor confidence and demand.

    Pegging its growth forecast at sub-6 per cent in view of the deterioration in the overall economic environment at home and abroad, Moody’s Analytics said that India's GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate is likely to be 5.5 per cent this year, while it is expected to be 6 per cent in 2013, marking a downward adjustment from 6.2 per cent estimated earlier.

    “There has been little policy response from either the Reserve Bank of India or the government and with global uncertainty dragging on, we see nothing on the horizon to lift the economy from its funk,” Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Glenn Levine said.

    Incidentally, the downward revision by Moody’s has come close on the heels of similar scale-down in growth projections by a few other major domestic and global financial services firms such as Citi and CLSA, which cut their estimates for India to 5.4 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively, for the fiscal year ending March next year.

    Moody’s, in particular, appears to have based its outlook revision on the poor monsoon rainfall during the June-to-September period as it accounts for nearly 60 per cent of the annual precipitation.
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